Fudging facts and the wealth of politicians
As the election tempo increases in some areas and remains low in other parts of the country, India is lurching into a period of reckoning for its immediate and long-term future, a future where a new, younger generation of voters have the say in who will form the next government and perhaps be the country’s pre-eminent leader.
And it is not all smooth sailing for the frontrunner, the National Democratic Alliance and its main constituent, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which appear to be everywhere – in the media at any rate — for it has run into that formidable bane of all political parties in this country: dissidence and revolt. If it’s not there in a majority of constituencies, it is certainly there in a visible number with figures such as former External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh expressing his outrage at being denied the Barmer constituency in Rajasthan and going all out as an independent to battle with a new BJP-entrant from the Congress. For his refusal to take humiliation quietly, Singh was expelled unceremoniously from the party he has served so well, with distinction and erudition, for decades, showing that the new leadership brooks no contenders.
This, in addition to the widespread concerns about the aggressive campaigning tone and shrill jingoism of the BJP, apart from the record of its PMIW (Prime Minister in Waiting) in Gujerat are also causes for anxiety about how India and its multiple identities, religious beliefs, political persuasions, peoples and perspectives will be governed. If the National Democratic Alliance does come to power, one can only hope that power will temper rhetoric and reality will blunt the edge of aggressiveness.
In my last column, I reflected on environmental concerns and especially how the issue of garbage disposal in our towns, forget about larger issues of saving forests and wildlife from the plunder of poachers and their political/bureaucratic pindari partners, receives such little attention from political parties or ‘public representatives’ at the assembly or parliamentary level. There’s a lot of hard work before us in educating our MPs, past and future, since our lives, livelihoods and futures are tied up in the ecosystems and environment around us.
But what about other key issues, which also affect those who vote as well as those who don’t? I reflect on two in this column: the first is the matter on which all planning, perspectives, development and growth rests upon – the nature and reliability of data.
For many years, scholars, researchers, media and officials have questioned the reliability of data tossed out by the National Sample Survey, even the Census of India of the Central Government as well as material issued by state governments in the North-eastern region. Both international and Indian scholars who work in remote villages in Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland find their findings and generation of raw data in contrast to if not in conflict with what the governments put out or want us to believe. This point cannot be emphasized enough. Reliability of data is the basis of all planning and development strategies, efforts that should make a difference to the lives of ordinary people in terms of roti, rapda, makaan, sarak, drinking water and sanitation apart from jeevika, incomes, swasth and sikhya. Without it how does a government, a council or a panchayat plan where to locate a drinking water supply system or a school or a road (of course, it’s a given that the powerful local lobbies will try and ensure it goes to their side though now they face opposition from voices raised against oligarchies).
Otherwise, developed reflects the skewed nature of things that we see today. One of the most arresting cases is Nagaland, where I had been hearing reports for years about the inflated population figures. When we did a survey for the Vision 2020 under the North Eastern Council I got calls and messages from field researchers with a unique problem: the standard ratio for household surveys was one tenth of the sized of each village. When they were going to villages which, according to the census, had 200 or 190 households, they were finding one tenth of that figure, they said.
I asked the Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio, who wants to come to Parliament now and bring Nagaland’s story to the Central stage (hopefully for a resolution of the long-tangled web of ceasefire and settlement negotiations with the militant Naga groups which have continued for over 17 years) at that time about it, he admitted that there had been an inflation of figures. The population of Nagaland, he said – and this was eight years back – was closer to 14-15 lakh than the official total of 19 lakh: off by only half a million!
But this is not an issue in Nagaland, nor is data a concern for politicians in Assam and other states except where they can throw mud at each other. But why should this go unchallenged, for it means that huge funds are simply being diverted within the state or being funneled back to Delhi.
Two young scholars Dr. Vikash Kumar and Dr. Ankush Aggarwal have done excellent work following up my initial findings and their work is available in the Economic and Political Weekly, to understand why these figures have been cooked up. This is especially significant given Assam’s paranoia about ‘Bangladeshis’ and changing demographics as well as the fact that Nagaland is the only state in India to have a negative growth of population after proclaimed two decades of fecundity. More of this in later discussions.
The second question is accessible data, sworn to by political candidates themselves, on the rapid growth of the wealth of individual politicians and candidates. The link between money matters and political candidates needs more research but some is coming out through the work of a few dedicated persons. All of us believe that most politicians are corrupt and that some are exceptionally so. I am sure we can think of several without a moment’s hesitation. There are mind-boggling figures for what some politicians in Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur are worth not to speak of Arunachal and Nagaland.
The National Election Watch of the Association for Democratic Reforms does a commendable job of highlighting the declared incomes and assets of politicians. This is a critical issue of importance for the general public: how wealthy are our politicians, how did they make this money when a few years ago there were going around in battered cars and lived in simple homes? Obviously, politics is a great entrepreneurial process where the stakes are high and the returns of risk taking are vast.
Among the richest candidate for the current elections in the region is Mani Subba, a former MP from Tezpur who has been denied the ticket and also been booted out of the Congress for contesting its writ. Subba, always controversial, has given his assets at 306.75 crores and his liabilities at Rs. 140 crore. An independent from Meghalaya, Denis Siangshai, has placed his total assets at Rs. 128 crore and a third big one is Vincent Pala, ex-minister of state for water resources in Delhi, and a coal mining baron from Meghalaya Jaintia Hills: he has valued himself at about Rs. 50 crore. Ranee Narah from Lakhimpur, Central Minister of State for Sports, is a paltry Rs. Eight crore.
I won’t tell you how to vote – but one consideration could be whether your local MP/MLA benefited enormously from his previous tenure and his constituency didn’t.
By the Brahmaputra / By Sanjoy Hazarika